A new American president will be elected within two months. Whoever wins the race will have to tackle anew the US foreign policy towards the region. Some policies would not need to be changed, while others would require some fine-tuning.
Overall, the existing US security commitment in Asia will not change. Whoever wins, whether Republican or Democrat, would continue to maintain the security pattern in the region with the five traditional US allies, which includes Thailand. The Hawaii-based Pacific Fleet will serve as a linchpin of the US presence in the region along with the troops in Korea and Japan. Most importantly, the US will remain a key trading partner and investor in this part of the world, including Thailand and Asean.
Beyond these commitments, the new US administration needs to adjust and fine-tune the country's approach with a personal touch and engage on issues affecting bilateral relations. In addition, the administration must also cope with the impact on Southeast Asia of the rise of China and India as well as Russia's assertiveness.
Indeed, the new administration will have a solid starting point with Asean. Because of Senator Richard Lugar advocating the strengthening of Asean-US relations two-and-a-half years ago, the US has now become the first country to have an Asean envoy. Since then Asean's other major dialogue partners, such as China, Japan, the EU and Australia, have said they would do the same. By next year, Asean will start a permanent representative system as practised in the UN.
One top priority for the incoming US president will be to convene the postponed US-Asean summit. Last September, President George W Bush agreed to meet Asean leaders in Singapore to commemorate the 30th anniversary of Asean-US ties but he cancelled at the last minute. Therefore, if the new president takes the initiative to revive the summit, it would further strengthen the US position in the region. The summit could be held in Bangkok in December of next year.
It would be a big boost for Asean and its leaders to have a summit meeting with a new president while he is in his first year in office. President Bush should have paid more attention to Asean during his two terms.
Both the presidential contenders know Southeast Asia - one was imprisoned here and the other grew up in the region. McCain was a prisoner of war in Hanoi. Despite the nightmare he went through, he has developed a special rapport not only with Vietnam but with Southeast Asia as a whole. He even mentioned Thailand and Malaysia in his foreign-policy speeches because he supports the US free-trade agreements with the two countries.
Obama knows Indonesia because he spent his childhood there. His memoir, "The Audacity of Hope", has been translated for the Indonesian market with a slight change to the title: "From Jakarta to the White House." It is a best-seller. Obama is considered a hero in the world's largest Muslim country, which often displays an anti-US sentiment. If Obama becomes president, Indonesia would be a great starting point for him and his country to lessen negative sentiment towards the US.
But he has yet to highlight Southeast Asia in his foreign-policy speeches. Maybe that will come out during presidential debates. Susan Rice, one of Obama's key foreign-policy advisers, has visited the region and attended seminars here. Asean scholars who know her have tried to impress upon her the fact that Asean leaders value visits by top US officials, which have been far too infrequent.
While the two candidates differ on their policies concerning Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and elsewhere, they share a bipartisan view on Burma. Both McCain and Obama are considered hardliners in the Senate when it comes to Burma. They support the Burmese struggle for democracy and call for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi. McCain has been tough on the Burmese junta and backed all of Bush's initiatives to sanction the regime.
Obama's running mate, Senator Joseph Biden, is also well known for his opposition to the Burmese junta in Congress. He was behind the new legislation sanctioning Burma, known as the Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE (Junta's Anti-Democratic Efforts) Act. The law imposes stricter financial and travel sanctions on top leaders and their associates. It also bans the import of Burmese gems to the US. Under this law, the US administration must create a new position known as "Special Representative and Policy Coordinator" for Burma.
It remains to be seen how the new administration in the US will be able to work closely with Asean on the Burmese issue without jeopardising the ongoing international campaign against Burma.
Overall, the existing US security commitment in Asia will not change. Whoever wins, whether Republican or Democrat, would continue to maintain the security pattern in the region with the five traditional US allies, which includes Thailand. The Hawaii-based Pacific Fleet will serve as a linchpin of the US presence in the region along with the troops in Korea and Japan. Most importantly, the US will remain a key trading partner and investor in this part of the world, including Thailand and Asean.
Beyond these commitments, the new US administration needs to adjust and fine-tune the country's approach with a personal touch and engage on issues affecting bilateral relations. In addition, the administration must also cope with the impact on Southeast Asia of the rise of China and India as well as Russia's assertiveness.
Indeed, the new administration will have a solid starting point with Asean. Because of Senator Richard Lugar advocating the strengthening of Asean-US relations two-and-a-half years ago, the US has now become the first country to have an Asean envoy. Since then Asean's other major dialogue partners, such as China, Japan, the EU and Australia, have said they would do the same. By next year, Asean will start a permanent representative system as practised in the UN.
One top priority for the incoming US president will be to convene the postponed US-Asean summit. Last September, President George W Bush agreed to meet Asean leaders in Singapore to commemorate the 30th anniversary of Asean-US ties but he cancelled at the last minute. Therefore, if the new president takes the initiative to revive the summit, it would further strengthen the US position in the region. The summit could be held in Bangkok in December of next year.
It would be a big boost for Asean and its leaders to have a summit meeting with a new president while he is in his first year in office. President Bush should have paid more attention to Asean during his two terms.
Both the presidential contenders know Southeast Asia - one was imprisoned here and the other grew up in the region. McCain was a prisoner of war in Hanoi. Despite the nightmare he went through, he has developed a special rapport not only with Vietnam but with Southeast Asia as a whole. He even mentioned Thailand and Malaysia in his foreign-policy speeches because he supports the US free-trade agreements with the two countries.
Obama knows Indonesia because he spent his childhood there. His memoir, "The Audacity of Hope", has been translated for the Indonesian market with a slight change to the title: "From Jakarta to the White House." It is a best-seller. Obama is considered a hero in the world's largest Muslim country, which often displays an anti-US sentiment. If Obama becomes president, Indonesia would be a great starting point for him and his country to lessen negative sentiment towards the US.
But he has yet to highlight Southeast Asia in his foreign-policy speeches. Maybe that will come out during presidential debates. Susan Rice, one of Obama's key foreign-policy advisers, has visited the region and attended seminars here. Asean scholars who know her have tried to impress upon her the fact that Asean leaders value visits by top US officials, which have been far too infrequent.
While the two candidates differ on their policies concerning Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and elsewhere, they share a bipartisan view on Burma. Both McCain and Obama are considered hardliners in the Senate when it comes to Burma. They support the Burmese struggle for democracy and call for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi. McCain has been tough on the Burmese junta and backed all of Bush's initiatives to sanction the regime.
Obama's running mate, Senator Joseph Biden, is also well known for his opposition to the Burmese junta in Congress. He was behind the new legislation sanctioning Burma, known as the Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE (Junta's Anti-Democratic Efforts) Act. The law imposes stricter financial and travel sanctions on top leaders and their associates. It also bans the import of Burmese gems to the US. Under this law, the US administration must create a new position known as "Special Representative and Policy Coordinator" for Burma.
It remains to be seen how the new administration in the US will be able to work closely with Asean on the Burmese issue without jeopardising the ongoing international campaign against Burma.
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