The hardened stance by the Thais came after a meeting earlier this year between Thai and Burmese border officers in Myawaddy, a Burmese army-controlled border town in Karen State. The pressure to repatriate is not being exerted only on the KNU, but also on the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front armed group.
As yet, we do not know if the pressure on Burmese dissidents and rebel groups along the Thai-Burmese border will increase in the coming weeks or whether the Thais were simply paying lip service to the Burmese authorities.
With so many internationally funded NGOs, political groups and humanitarian agencies based along the border, especially in Mae Sot, many are asking whether the tightening of Thai policy will include all Burmese in the area. Time will tell.
However, what we can tell is that the writing is well and truly on the wall. From a comfortable and relatively prosperous status as a “buffer” for the Thais in the 1970s and 80s, the KNU has gradually lost influence. The Karen may not have anything to offer the Thais any more.
Since the breakaway of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) and the fall of its headquarters, Manerplaw, in 1995, the KNU have continually faced mutinies, military defeats, an erosion of influence and a loss of revenue from its previous border trade.
The KNU’s influence was undermined again last year when one of its leaders, Padoh Mahn Sha, was gunned down in his home in Mae Sot. The culprits and assassins were never brought to justice.
Then, in the middle of February, the KNU was accused of shelling a Burmese border town, Myawaddy. The New Light of Myanmar, a Burmese junta mouthpiece, claimed that four shells were fired, two landing about 10 km southwest of the town, one near a lodge and another in the compound of a Buddhist monastery. No casualties were reported.
Although the KNU denied the accusation, the attack occurred on the same day that the UN’s special rapporteur on human rights in Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana, arrived in the country for a six-day visit, and a day before he was scheduled to travel to Pa-an, the capital of Karen State—clearly a moral card for the junta to play on the UN envoy.
After six decades of guerilla warfare, the KNU has faced last stands before; its leaders have always refused to cut deals with the junta. However, the recent signs are worrying.
In January, Col Ner Dah Mya, the son of the late Gen Bo Mya of the KNU, was released on bail by the Thai army, according to the BBC, fueling speculation of another waning star within the Karen rebels’ ranks.
Nonetheless, the Burmese generals may still be their own worst enemy when it comes to developing friendships. The new Democrat government in Thailand is known to prefer keeping its distance from the regime in Burma.
Although Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva stole the show at the recent Asean Summit in Hua Hin when his government hosted representatives from civil society groups, the meeting was overshadowed by the negative elements brought to the summit by the Burmese junta.
With its petulant threats to boycott the meeting with the civil society group, the Burmese delegation embarrassed their hosts. Many within Asean cannot see how the economic bloc can gain credibility with the Burmese albatross around its neck.
However, whatever the political differences, the fact is that the Thai and Burmese military leaders continue to enjoy a relatively good relationship.
Recently, junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe met with Thailand’s army chief, Gen Anupong Paojinda, to discuss the Rohingya boatpeople issue. For Than Shwe—a man who frequently snubs UN envoys—to agree to talks signified a warming in relations. Surely, many said, Burma wants something from Thailand.
And when Thai Supreme Commander Gen Songkitti Jaggabat visited Burma last month to discuss the Rohingya issue, he was given the red carpet treatment and a private audience with Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye.
Of course it is difficult for the generals in Naypyidaw to forget that Thailand is a major trading partner and has purchased natural gas resources from the regime and cut a deal to buy hydroelectric energy via the 7,110-megawatt Tasang dam on the Salween River.
So, despite all the Burmese regime’s faults, the Thais clearly have more common interests with the junta nowadays than with the KNU.
Perhaps to pragmatic Thais who have long abandoned the buffer zone policy, today the KNU is worth little after losing its territory and its major trade routes.
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