In an abrupt shift in policy toward Burma, the U.S. government has decided to embark upon direct dialogue with the military junta.
Ever since the military coup 21 years ago, the United States has maintained severe sanctions against the ruling junta in an effort to get the generals to embrace democracy. Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest, and many others are being held as political prisoners. The junta appears to be tightening its autocratic rule ahead of general elections scheduled for next year.
Why then has the United States chosen this juncture to try to engage Burma in dialogue? Presumably, Washington is concerned that if Burma is left to do as it pleases, the country will become a serious destabilizing factor in world affairs.
New suspicions arose earlier this year that Burma could be building nuclear facilities with the help of North Korea. In June, a North Korean vessel suspected of carrying weapons forbidden under U.N. sanctions was tracked by U.S. forces. The vessel's destination was believed to have been Burma.
If the junta decides to try its hand at developing nuclear weapons, U.S. policy toward Asia would be uprooted from its foundations. There are fears that drug cultivation would spread. Another concern is China's growing influence in the region.
The United States is determined to maintain sanctions while simultaneously opening up a window for dialogue. We hope the U.S. initiative will advance the democratization process. Nothing should be taken for granted, however.
In an address to the recent U.N. General Assembly, Gen. Thein Sein, who holds the title of prime minister in Burma, called for all sanctions to be lifted. This can be read as an announcement of his intentions to hold the elections under the current military leadership and to continue de facto military rule. To begin with, Burma's new Constitution that was adopted last year is designed to aid and abet the military. It stipulates that a quarter of the seats in the parliament should be allocated to military personnel.
Burma's general election must be held in a fair and democratic manner.
The government must allow the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Suu Kyi, to freely participate. The international community will not accept a result in which power is transferred to a democratic government in name only, while real power remains in the hands of the junta.
If Burma truly wishes to return to the international fold, the junta should explain clearly, through dialogue with the United States, how it intends to move toward democratization.
The Japanese government's diplomatic stance on Burma has been to use the carrot and the stick approach. It has placed a basic freeze on all new aid programs while issuing a standing invitation to a Cabinet member from Burma to visit Japan for talks. But this approach has failed to ease the regime's oppression.
Restoring democracy to Burma will be in the interest of not just Japan but the entire Asian region. Such a development would block the possibility of military cooperation with North Korea.
Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada met with his Burmese counterpart last weekend and issued a strongly worded call for Suu Kyi's release and the holding of a free general election. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, a member of a lawmakers' group that supports Burma's democratization, has spoken over the phone with Suu Kyi. Japan should seize the opportunity offered by the U.S. turnaround in policy toward Burma. It should work together with the United States, China and Southeast Asian countries to strengthen diplomatic pressure against the military regime and urge it to change.
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