Wednesday, October 28, 2009

REWARDING BURMA REGIME


The Obama Administration is starting to worry about Burma's nuclear ambitions. That's the good news. The bad news is that the White House is taking the same failed tack it used with Tehran and Pyongyang and trying to cajole the generals out of their biggest potential bargaining chip.

Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell calls this policy "pragmatic engagement." In testimony to Congress last week, he confirmed the U.S. would soon send a "fact-finding" mission to Naypyidaw, possibly as early as next week. The delegation will discuss "alleged concerns associated with U.N. Resolution 1874," referring to this year's Security Council measure that forbids U.N. members from trading arms with North Korea.

The U.S. is right to pay attention to Burma's burgeoning relationship with Pyongyang. A U.S. destroyer trailed a North Korean military ship, the Kang Nam, for weeks earlier this year as it sailed toward Burma, presumably to deliver weapons. The regime has also built a series of tunnels near the capital which analysts say could be used for military operations or missile storage.

Mr. Campbell claims the dialogue, which comes after the U.S. hosted a high-level Burmese diplomat in September—will "test the intentions of the Burmese leadership and the sincerity of their expressed interest in a more positive relationship with the United States."

But by even showing up, the U.S. team would hand the generals a diplomatic victory. A visit by Mr. Campbell would be the highest-level U.S. delegation to visit Burma since Madeleine Albright's trip in 1995, when she was ambassador to the United Nations.

Meanwhile, the generals have shown no indication to change their behavior. Over the past few months, the regime has intensified its ethnic-cleansing campaign against minorities, placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest (again), and detained and tortured a U.S. citizen, Kyaw Zaw Lin, who has ties to the dissident community.

That makes Mr. Campbell's talk of increasing humanitarian aid premature and potentially very damaging. Burma has a highly restrictive environment where many aid groups are beholden to the state. USAID will already funnel some $28 million into Burma-related programs this year, about 40% of which will go directly inside the country.

To his credit, Mr. Campbell has said he would meet with imprisoned opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, ask the generals to release her and all political prisoners, and talk to the political opposition in preparation for elections next year.

But his very presence in Naypyidaw would send a message that the generals' embrace of North Korea is paying off handsomely. Other countries will take note of this lesson, too.

No comments: