Burmese generals are playing with China, the United States and the United Nations since its came into power in 1988 for their own benefit to cling on political power. The US and China need to think it is more beneficial for them to find a way and work together for the emergence of democratic governance in Burma for the long run, rather than thinking of how to influence the current military regime which has no interest on its own people and the development of the country.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said at a regular press briefing. "As Myanmar's (Burma's) neighbor, China hopes to see stability and economic development in Myanmar and China always adopts a policy of non-interference”.
China has been the sole protector for the Burmese military regime since it came into power in 1988. China explained to the world that the Burmese regime has the ability to maintain stability of the country. But when 20,000 Kokant Chinese refugees from Burma fled to China on August 28, 2009 , the Chinese regime may need to rethink about their “stability” theory. Is the regime really maintaining stability in the country? Or Burma is like a sleeping volcano, and can erupt any time any moment?
China-Burma relation strained when the Burmese Socialist government created anti-Chinese riots to divert the rice shortage in Burma in 1967 . Many Chinese were killed by the hungry mob and the Chinese Embassy was surrounded by thousands of people. China withdrew its Ambassador and gave tons of arms and ammunition to the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) to punish the so-called Burmese socialist regime.
CPB recruited ethnic Wa, Kachins, and Kokang as their soldiers. Some Wa’s, Kachins and Kokang leaders were sent to Beijing to attend communist cadre classes. The growing of ethnic based communist troops gave an opportunity to the Wa ethnic minority’s group to rise as one of the strongest ethnic resistance groups in Burma after they split with CPB.
On September 18, 1988 the military leaders brutally crushed the nation-wide demonstrations spearheaded by university students. After that incident, China-Burma relations changed dramatically. The West and the US fully supported the 1988 demonstrations which demanded for democratic government and multi party system. On the other hand, Chinese government totally supported the Burmese regime which has a similar style of dictatorial rule in China.
The newly formed military regime announced that they are going to a democratic system and promised to change the close door economic system to an open economic system. Burma’s neighboring countries jumped into the bandwagon to take the lion share from Burma’s rich natural resources, logging, fishing, mining, and gas explorations.
Among them China was the regime’s favorite ally and the most beneficial. China–Burma border was open and trade between the two countries soared from millions to billions. The flow of Chinese immigrants and merchants were unbelievable like a human stream flowing into Burma. Before 1988, Chinese influence in Burma reached to Lasho in Shan states, which is made of 80% Chinese population. But after 1988 the cultural city of Burma; Mandalay, was quickly occupied by the Chinese migrants and local Burmese people were pushed to the out skirts. Burmese immigration offices in China-Burma border became rich by allowing Chinese immigrants into Burma and issuing them as Burmese citizens though they only spoke Chinese.
David I Steinberg wrote “Burmese officials indicate there may be two million illegal Chinese in Myanmar and perhaps half a million Chinese registered with the government. This would be about five percent of the population.”
In his last paragraph Steinberg predicts regarding Burma-China relations that “The Chinese government needs to understand that if they do not push discretely but intensely for economic and political reforms in their own national interests, they may lose out in the longer term.”
Now Than Shwe wants to show its softer face to the USA by attacking Kokang cease fire groups. He also met with the US senator Jim Webb. As a result, Jim Webb was able to take back his country man John Yettaw who unofficially swam across the lake to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi.
Majority of the CPB leadership were Burmese and they were seen as a dominant majority race by ethnic groups including Was, Kokants and Kachins. CPB mutiny erupted in 1989 starting from Kokant leadership led by Phun Kya Shin and was followed by the Wa’s and Kachins.
Ethnic resistance groups are solely dependent on Burma’s neighboring countries, such as China, Thailand, India and Bangladesh. Kachins, Kokang and Wa’s follow what China directed to them and Karens, Karennis, Lahus, Shans, Paos and Mons depend on Thailand for medicines, food, and illegal arms trade. In the same fashion, Chins and Nagas accept what India wants.
Under the Socialist regime Burma practiced closed door economic system which indirectly boosted the black market trade. The unofficial black market border trade between Burma and its neighboring countries flourished between 1962 to 1988. The ethnic resistance groups were well connected with border trade and financially benefitted from it. Competition between different ethnic groups to control the border trade was the main interest for them. Ethnic resistance groups lost their goals for autonomy and enjoyed collecting tax from the black market trade. Ethnic leaders were well treated by the Thais, Chinese and Indians because they were the one who controlled the border trade.
When 1988 nation-wide demonstration occurred, the Karen National Union (KNU) and the New Mon State Party (NMSP) fought each other to control the border trade in Three Pagoda Pass, rather than planning to support the movement inside Burma. This incident proved that there was no strategic planning to achieve their goal for autonomy when the government was temporarily paralyzed by the nation-wide demonstrations.
But after the Burmese regime opened up the economy, the relationship between the Thais and ethnic resistance groups has changed. Thais saw that directly dealing with the military regime was far more beneficial than dealing with ethnic resistance groups. Karen leaders were harassed by the Thai authorities while traveling within Thailand, while in the past were given VIP status. Thais imposed a lot of restrictions on resistance leaders from Burma to please the Burmese military regime, in return getting logging and fishing concessions and later gas deals with Burma.
On the other hand, the ethnic Wa, Kokang, Shans and Kachins split from CPB and reached a cease fire agreement where favored by the regime. They were free to travel in the country and free to do business. This is the significant progress for the ethnic resistance groups living along the China-Burma border. The Wa’s, Kachins, Shans and Kokang along the china border emerged as business partners with the military generals. As a result, opium production soared in the China-Burma and Thai-Burma border. Burmese regime denied that they are not involved in opium trade but after Kokang group was rooted out, they blamed the Kokang leader as an opium warlord. To eliminate the Wa, Kachin and Mongla groups, the regime needed to name them as opium warlords in front of the international arena. It is the best way to persuade the USA to support them to curb the opium production.
But the Burmese generals have no intention to let the cease fire groups free-roaming around the country for life; they are planning to control the whole country after their planned 2010 election. After 2010 there will be no ethnic armies existent in Burma. The only army standing tall will be the Burmese Army which controls the whole country as a dominant institution. Under the new constitution they will get amnesty for their crimes against humanity and human rights violations. Then the generals and their cronies will control politics and economy for decades to come.
To eliminate the ethnic armies they have to make a deal with the Chinese because Wa, KoKang, and Kachin are recognized as ethnic people from China and if the war broke out in China-Burma border, tens and thousands will flee from Burma into China and it will be a big headache for the Chinese to deal with the refugees. The current warning from Chinese authority to the Burmese counterpart is not to harm its citizens. China demands for those who abused the Chinese inside Burma to be persecuted. They’ve called the Chinese citizens from eastern Burma to return to China as soon as possible, proving to us that the Chinese government is concerned about the shaky situation in Burma.
If China agreed to close its eyes, the Burmese troops will be roaming into Wa and Kachin regions to eliminate the ethnic armies. The Burmese will do it in the near future but if China did not approve the ethnic cleansing, Burmese generals need to find a super power which will balance the Chinese power in Asia. It turn out the US is their best option to approach. But China might likely close its eyes if the Burmese offensive starts against the ethnic cease fire groups because China needs gas from Burma urgently for its growing economy and short cut transportation from Burma’s sea to its land locked Yunan province.
The Burmese generals will explain Chinese leaders that Burma needs only one army and they have to get rid of the ethnic armies to consolidate the power for stability and peace. They will promise not to harm the Chinese citizens when war breaks out but within the war a lot of innocent Chinese citizens will die together with the ethnic troops.
On the other hand, they will deal with the high ranking US officials like Senator Jim Webb for backing them to eliminate the ethnic cease fire groups. The regime likes to approach Senator Jim Webb because he was the one who strongly opposed sanction. Even though economic sanction is not directly effective on regime change, it is hurting the regime to some extent. The only thing the regime wants to deal with the US is to show the Burmese people that they have no hope to fight back because now the strong critic like the US government is on their side by using pictures of high ranking US officials shaking hands with General Than Shwe and his cabinet members in their propaganda newspapers and TV stations.
In reality the regime does not care for sanction or western help. They do not care about the country’s economy or its people who are struggling for survival. The only thing they care about is how to use the super powers for their own benefit to cling onto political power. In 2008 Cyclone Nergis proved that the regime did not care about the people, helping the cyclone victims were far less important than maintaining the political power.
The regime used US special Envoy Rezali Ismail to buy time by promising him they would start a dialogue with opposition party National League for Democracy but years passed by without one dialogue.
They will name the cease fire groups as drug kingpins in the near future when the war breaks out. Kokang leader Phum Kya Shin was praised as a nationalist hero when he reached a cease-fire agreement with the regime. But after he refused to transform his army to a border guard he was attacked and named as a drug lord.
In conclusion, both China and USA need to know the mentality of the regime and work together as a team to change Burma as a democratic country. China will get more benefit under democratic Burma rather than favoring and supporting the notorious military regime. Aung San Suu Kyi said China and Burma have a long history of mutual relationship and she intends to keep it as a good neighbor. Burma has no capacity to threat China when it is changed as a democratic nation and it will be less of a headache for China to deal with a democratic government. Under democratic rule in Burma, ethnic issues will be solved on peaceful negotiation rather than using force to fight each other.
The US needs to keep in mind that ASEAN constructive engagement has failed and so did the sanction. The new approach not only needs engagement but also to find and support real potential leaders and not Burmese Chalabis. There are potential leaders who have commitment and capacity to change Burma as a democratic state. Leaders of 88 Generation have come of age and they are ready to lead the country. The US needs to support those leaders in exile with financial, technological, and training for change in Burma rather supporting corrupt so called leaders in Exile who could not show progress within two decades.
BY HTUN AUNG GYAW
