Tuesday, February 9, 2010

MOVE TO BGF OR GO TO WAR


The Burmese military junta called on ethnic cease-fire groups to join the Border Guard Force (BGF) by the end of February as its top negotiator Lt-Gen Ye Myint traveled to the Northern Shan State city of Lashio to meet Shan and Wa leaders at the weekend.

Sources closed to cease-fire groups in Shan State said delegations from the Shan State Army –North (SSA- North) met with Ye Myint, who is also chief of the Military Affairs Security (MAS) formerly known as the Military Intelligence Service, on Saturday. But his efforts still seem unsuccessful.

“During the meeting, Lt-Gen Ye Myint told Shan leaders they must join the border guard force by the end of February,” a source said. “Unlike at previous meetings with the SSA, he used harsher tones in urging them to accept the BGF proposal.”

However, the SSA-North did not give an immediate response regarding the BGF February deadline to Ye Myint’s delegation at the meeting, he said.

Ye Myint’s was also scheduled to hold a meeting in Lashio with leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the strongest ethnic armed group in Burma with an estimated 20,000 troops.

But the UWSA told Burmese officials that they were not available to come to Lashio, which is the headquarters of the Burma army’s northeast military regional command that overran the Wa’s allies in the Kokang area in August 2009.

Wa sources said they canceled the meeting with Ye Myint as their leader, Bao Youxiang, had health problems.

On Jan. 31, a week before his Lashio trip, Ye Myint met representatives of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) at Myitkyina, the Kachin State capital. He reportedly used tougher language there when urging the KIA to join Naypyidaw’s BGF plan.

Like other ceasefire groups on the Sino-Burmese border, the KIA did not officially answer Ye Myint during the meeting, but they seem prepared for the worst.

According to local sources in Kachin State, KIA officials have sped up recruitment of villagers for KIA militias in Kachin-controlled areas. They attract recruits by saying low rank and file troops would get at least 10,000 kyat [US $10] monthly.

Similar methods of recruitment have been reported in the Wa area in Shan State’s Special Region-2 ever since the junta started talks about the BGF with ethnic groups in April 2009. Recruitment for additional UWSA troops is active among Wa people as well as other ethnic peoples living in the Wa territory.

Speaking to the The New York Times last year, Col. Peeranate Katetem, a Thai expert on the Wa, estimated that using newly-recruited militias and reserve troops, the UWSA could field as many as 50,000 troops.

The National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), a Wa ally known as the Mongla Army which also resists the BGF plan, recently faced stronger challenges when its secretary-general, Min Ein, was assassinated by unknown gunmen on Jan.27.

No one has claimed responsibility and the killers are still at large. However, a rumor in Shan State suggests that a vehicle used by gunmen was found at a hotel in Mongla owned by a Wa leader. The Shan Herald Agency for News, which specializes in Shan State affairs, stated on Feb.3 that this could be a ruse by the junta to sow division between the NDAA and its allies, the UWSA.

Attending Min Ein’s funeral at Mongla on Jan. 31, junta army Col. Than Tun Thein reportedly told NDAA leaders that the junta is ready to cooperate and fine those responsible for the killing, citing a rumor that Wa troops were behind the incident.

In contrast to Thein's assertions, the UWSA sent high ranking officials to the funeral and Wa TV repeatedly broadcast reports about about Min Ein’s death and his funeral and showed solidarity with the Mongla people, Wa sources said.

Instability on China’s southwest border that threatens Chinese’s businesses in Yunnan Province and along the Sino-Burmese border is a concern for Beijing.

In Macao in January, Chinese scholars from Beijing held a meeting about Burma with experts and dissidents as part of Beijing’s survey on its neighbor’s affairs, particularly in regard to ethnic issues. Tensions on the border and Aung San Suu Kyi’s role in ethnic issues were reportedly discussed during the meeting.

အပစ္ရပ္ ရွမ္းျပည္တပ္မေတာ္မွ ေခါင္းေဆာင္မ်ားအား နယ္ျခားေစာင့္တပ္ အသြင္ေျပာင္းေရးအတြက္ အဓိက တာဝန္ယူေဆာင္ရြက္ေနသည့္ စစ္ဖက္ေရးရာ အရာရိွခ်ဳပ္ ဒု-ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ႀကီး ရဲျမင့္က ယခုလ (၆) ရက္တြင္ ရွမ္းျပည္ေျမာက္ပိုင္း၊ လား႐ိႈးၿမိဳ႕၌ ေတြ႔ဆံုခဲ့ၿပီး ျပည္သူ႔စစ္ အသြင္ေျပာင္းေရး အတြက္ ထပ္မံဖိအားေပး ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။

ရွမ္းျပည္တပ္မေတာ္ ဥကၠ႒ ဦးလြယ္ေမာင္၊ ဒု-ဥကၠ႒ ဦးကိုင္ဖတို႔ (၂) ဦးႏွင့္ ေတြ႔ဆုံရာတြင္ ဒု-ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ႀကီး ရဲျမင့္က ျပည္သူ႔စစ္အသြင္ေျပာင္းေရးအတြက္ ျပင္းျပင္းထန္ထန္ ေျပာဆိုခဲ့ေၾကာင္း ရွမ္းေခါင္းေဆာင္မ်ားႏွင့္ နီးစပ္သူတဦးက ေျပာသည္။

၎က “ဗိုလ္ရဲျမင့္ ေျပာတဲ့သေဘာကေတာ့ အသြင္ေျပာင္းတာ ျပတ္ျပတ္သားသားလုပ္၊ ဒီလမကုန္ခင္ အသြင္ေျပာင္းရင္ ေျပာင္း၊ မေျပာင္းရင္ေတာ့ ျပန္ၿပီး စစ္တိုက္ၾကတာေပါ့ ပံုစံမ်ဳိးအထိ ေျပာေနတယ္။ အခုတေခါက္ သူတို႔ေတြ႔တာ ဗိုလ္ရဲျမင့္က တင္းတင္းမာမာနဲ႔ ေျပာခဲ့တယ္” ဟု ေျပာသည္။

ရွမ္းျပည္ေျမာက္ပိုင္း၊ သီေပါၿမိဳ႕နယ္၊ စိန္ေက်ာ့ေက်းရြာတြင္ အေျခစိုက္ထားသည့္ ရွမ္းျပည္တပ္မေတာ္အား ျပည္သူ႔စစ္ အသြင္ ေျပာင္းရန္ နအဖက ယမန္ႏွစ္၊ ဧၿပီလကုန္ပိုင္းက စတင္ကမ္းလွမ္းခဲ့ၿပီး ေနာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ တပ္ဖဲြ႔အတြင္း တပ္မႉး၊ တပ္သားမ်ားက ျပည္သူ႔စစ္အသြင္ေျပာင္းေရးကို လက္မခံႏိုင္ဘဲ ျဖစ္ေနၾကသည္။

သို႔အတြက္ ရွမ္းတပ္ဖဲြ႔ေခါင္းေဆာင္မ်ားက ေအာက္ေျခတပ္မႉး၊ တပ္သားမ်ားအား လိုက္လံေျဖရွင္း၊ ေဖ်ာင္းဖ်ေနရသကဲ့သို႔ နအဖဘက္ကလည္း အသြင္ေျပာင္းေရးအတြက္ တစိုက္မတ္မတ္ ေျပာဆိုေနရာ ယခု ေနာက္ဆံုး ရာဇသံေပးသည္အထိ ေျပာဆိုလာျခင္းျဖစ္သည္။

နအဖက အိမ္နီးခ်င္းႏိုင္ငံမ်ား၏ နယ္စပ္တြင္ အေျခစိုက္ထားသည့္ အပစ္ရပ္အဖြဲ႔အား နယ္ျခားေစာင့္တပ္အျဖစ္လည္းေကာင္း၊ နယ္စပ္ႏွင့္ေ၀းသည့္ ရွမ္းျပည္တပ္မေတာ္ကဲ့သို႔ေသာ အဖြဲ႔အား ျပည္သူ႔စစ္အျဖစ္လည္းေကာင္း အသြင္ေျပာင္းဖြဲ႔စည္းရန္ ဖိအားေပး ေျပာဆိုေနျခင္းျဖစ္သည္။

အသြင္မေျပာင္းေသးသည့္အဖဲြ႔အား စစ္ေရးအရ တိုက္႐ိုက္တိုက္ခိုက္ရန္ဆိုသည္မွာ နအဖအေနျဖင့္ လြယ္လင့္တကူလုပ္၍ မရဘဲ အခက္အခဲမ်ားရိွေနသည္ဟု တ႐ုတ္-ျမန္မာနယ္စပ္ စစ္ေရးအကဲခတ္ ဦးေအာင္ေက်ာ္ေဇာက သံုးသပ္သည္။

၎က “အပစ္ရပ္အဖဲြ႔ေတြကို နယ္ျခားေစာင့္တပ္လက္မခံလို႔ တိုက္ရတာထက္ ဘိန္းကိစၥတို႔၊ ဘာတို႔နဲ႔ အေၾကာင္းျပၿပီး လုပ္ႏိုင္ ပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ လုပ္လို႔မရဘူးျဖစ္ေနတယ္။ သူတိုက္လို႔မရတဲ့ခါက်ေတာ့ တိုင္းရင္းသားေတြအေပၚ ေသြးခဲြသပ္လွ်ဳိတာတို႔၊ ဦးမင္းအိမ္လုပ္ႀကံခံရတဲ့ကိစၥကို ဝအဖဲြ႔က လုပ္တဲ့ပံုမ်ဳိး လုပ္လာတယ္။ အခုျပႆနာက ႏိုင္ငံေရးျပႆနာျဖစ္ေပမယ့္ ဗမာစစ္ဗိုလ္တစုရဲ႕ လုပ္ေဆာင္မႈေတြေၾကာင့္ တိမ္းေစာင္းမႈဟာ အမ်ဳိးသားေရးအထိ ဦးတည္သြားေနတယ္။ အပစ္ရပ္တိုင္းရင္းသားေပါင္းစံု၊ လူမ်ဳိးေပါင္းစံုက ေသြးစည္းညီၫြတ္ၿပီး နအဖကို ရင္ဆိုင္ဖို႔ ျပင္တာဟာ ေကာင္းတဲ့လကၡဏာ ဆိုေပမယ့္ လူမ်ဳိးေရးျပႆနာအတြက္ မီးပြားျဖစ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဒါဟာ နအဖမွာ တာဝန္ရိွပါတယ္” ဟု ေျပာသည္။

၁၉၈၉ ခုႏွစ္၊ စက္တင္ဘာ (၂၄) ရက္တြင္ နဝတကိုယ္စားလွယ္မ်ားႏွင့္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ေဆထင္ ဦးေဆာင္သည့္ ရွမ္းတပ္ဖဲြ႔ ကိုယ္စားလွယ္အၾကား လား႐ိႈးၿမိဳ႕၌ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးယူရန္ ေဆြးေႏြးစဥ္က ေနာင္တက္လာမည့္အစိုးရျဖင့္သာ ႏိုင္ငံေရးေဆြးေႏြး မည္ဆိုသည့္ သေဘာတူညီခ်က္အရ ယခုအခါတြင္ အသြင္ေျပာင္းေရးကိစၥကို ရွမ္းလက္နက္ကိုင္တပ္ဖဲြ႔ တပ္မႉးႏွင့္ ေအာက္ေျခအဆင့္က လက္မခံႏိုင္ဘဲ ျဖစ္ေနသည္။

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